Friday Eco-Fact: Drought Not Related to Global Warming
I have said this before and now a scientist has confirmed what I already believed, the drought in Australia has nothing to do with global warming:
IS the ongoing drought in the Murray-Darling Basin affected by climate change? The simple answer is that there is no evidence that CO2 has had any significant role. Like it or not, that is the science.
In fact, the drought was caused by an entirely natural phenomenon: the 2002 El Nino event. This led to particularly low rainfalls across eastern Australia. The subsequent years were either neutral or weak El Nino conditions. Significantly, neutral conditions are not sufficient to break a drought. In 2006, we had a return to El Nino conditions which further exacerbated the drought. What we didn’t have was a strong La Nina. (…)
A key claim is that the multiple occurrence of El Nino is a sign of climate change. This is speculative at best. Recent analysis showed the nine-year absence of La Nina was not unusual. In fact long-term records demonstrate alternating periods of 20-40 years where El Nino is dominant, followed by similarly extended periods where La Nina dominates. Ominously, the data demonstrates that it is possible to go 14-15 years without any La Nina events. The consequent drought would be devastating but entirely natural.
The observation that El Nino and La Nina events cluster on 20-40 year, multi-decadal timescales is an important one. It demonstrates that Australia should always expect major changes in climate as a function of natural variability. When viewed in this light, the drought is most likely a recurring feature of the Australian climate. [The Australian]
Make sure to read the whole article from Stewart Franks who works for the University of Newcastle School of Engineering. He demolishes the global warming is responsible for the drought argument. I never believed it once I took a look at the historical Australian rainfall graph:
The rainfall levels are actually returning to what is was 50 years ago when no one was complaining about global warming. What is making the drought such a serious issue compared to 50 years ago is the level of water consumption from a much larger Australian population. All of these issues has nothing to do with global warming though I doubt we will have heard the last of global warming is responsible for the drought rhetoric.
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About The Author
Dobbs
I am a avid hiker with a love for travel and the outdoors. I currently call the Evergreen State of Washington my home.
Hey Dobbs, Your rainfall versus consumption analysis is right on. For 100 years Australian rainfall has increased with the gradual warming (and consequent evaporation that supplies the moisture to the atmosphere) in tropical waters. We are now into tropical cooling. A bit of belt tightening is necessary. Seems that tropical warming and cooling is related to changes in cirrus cloud cover at high altitude where temperature is influenced by short wave radiation there. There is an overlap between ozone and water vapour below the tropopause. With an increased frequency of La Nina events we should expect more of what we… Read more »
Erl thanks for commenting and providing further analysis on the causes of the drought. Unfortunately politicians have too much invested in the AGW theory and will continue to trumpet it while doing next to nothing to increase water storage capacity to deal with the low rainfall years that as history has shown comes and goes in Australia.